2019 Has a Resemblance to IBB's 1993

By 1993, the strain of military rule had become unbearable. Nigerians lived like chicken in a battery cage. They were weary, weakened and battered, having been brutalized and deceived as the children of Israel under Pharaoh. As pressure piled against the military's "hidden agenda" to rule perpetually, the regime of the former military dictator, General Ibrahim Babangida, succumbed to organize a presidential election.

There were surreptitious attempts to derail the election, lasting up to a few hours before the polls. In spite of the shadow cast, when voting started on June 12, 1993, Nigerians conducted themselves in the most civil manner as they optimistically picked between the candidates of only two parties registered, M.K.O. Abiola of the Social Democratic Party and Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention.

Hopes that change had come was quickly dashed. Although the elections were held, free and fair, Babangida stopped the release of the results initially, before he later annulled it altogether, throwing Nigerian into a political turmoil that would consume the “Maradona.” Nigeria then went through a political crisis similar to that which is troubling Venezuela at this moment 

As events unfolded, Babangida lost his mojo and was eased out, setting the stage for his associate and predator, General Sani Abacha, to usurp power and run Nigerians through a few years of brutal repression until their prayers were answered when Abacha died suddenly by divine intervention.

Under mysterious circumstances, the man rightfully expected to take the mantle, M.K.O. Abiola, suddenly died while negotiating the terms of his release. From this point, the political stage became toxic for the military. Their game was up. Democracy returned in 1999, albeit power was handed over in an adulterated form to a former army general, Olusegun Obasanjo, under a constitution drawn up by his military friends.

Since 1999, Nigeria has operated a democratic government, holding elections when due and transferring power to whom it is due. The civilian rule has not been perfect, but it has been working. It worked most perfectly when General Mohammadu Buhari became the President through a peaceful transfer of power from President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. It was the first time in Nigeria’s history that power would move to the opposition through an election. The proud moment of our democratic heritage happened less than four years ago but in a month's time, all of that could unravel.

Various warning signals are blinking before our eyes, indicating that the outcome of the February 16, 2019 election could take Nigeria right back to 1993 - a time when the election produced chaos instead of a president. Those who understand the past cannot fail to draw the similarities between the transitional stratagem of the Buhari administration and the Babangida regime. Developments signify that President Buhari is frantic about handing over power to another political party if he loses.

There are fears that the election may be marred by rigging, intimidation, violence, cronyism and judicial manipulation. Before our eyes, President Buhari is shaking up the administrative structure supporting the electoral process in a manner suggesting he will be the sole beneficiary, by appointing those considered to be loyal to him. A level playing field with the opposition parties is being rolled back as quickly as possible.

One of the signs of trepidation within this administration is the timing of the ouster of the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Walter Onnoghen. If a public official is caught in an unethical or criminal behavior, he or she should be removed; but only after a fair trial according to due process. Not only has Justice Onnoghen not been given a fair trial, the timing of his removal is suspicious. Could it be that the administration is not comfortable with the likelihood that an unfriendly judge could determine the outcome of the election? Likely so!

Reminiscent of 1993, foreign governments are sounding an alarm. The UK government stated that the “timing of this action, so close to national elections, gives cause for concern,” while the United States said it “is deeply concerned by the impact of the executive branch’s decision to suspend and replace the Chief Justice and head of the judicial branch without the support of the legislative branch on the eve of national and state elections.” The belligerent reaction of the Buhari Government to these concerns raises even more concern.

The courts play a big role in our elections. In 1979, the Supreme Court single-handedly gave power to President Shehu Shagari in the famous "twelve-two-third" judgment. Easing out the head of the third branch of government days to the election, taken together with other events, creates a halo of uncertainty around the February 16 election in which there is really only one other strong opponent, Mr. Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party. 

In the same manner that judicial power appears to have been crushed so close to the election, the power of the Nigerian Police to enforce law and order appears to have been compromised. The Inspector General of Police was replaced one month to the election, with the added implication that several police officers senior to the new police chief must resign, according to tradition.

A third troubling development is the appointment of President Buhari’s relative, Amina Zakari, as the head of the election collation center by the Independent National Electoral Commission, without a care about the appearance of unfairness or cronyism. The collation center is where results of the presidential election will be announced and the President’s in-law will manage it.

Not only has the opposition been incensed by the appointments, other geopolitical groups are asking why most, if not all, of the replacements done in the wake of the elections has been in favor of someone from the President's ethnic group. By his own hands, President Buhari is fanning the flames of tension.

Statements from the administration are also raising the political temperature. Minister of Information, Mr. Lai Mohammed, has claimed without evidence that "the opposition (is going) to orchestrate widespread violence in the country, using insurgents and criminal elements within and outside the country. Their plan is to scuttle the election and then push for an interim government, having realized they can’t win a free, fair, credible and peaceful election."

Those statements are reminiscent of those by Babangida's spokesman, Comrade Uche Chukwumerije, in 1993. It will not be a stretch too far to reason that the Buhari camp is settling for a deadlock, during which it plans to use the police, the electoral body and the courts to suppress and declare victory.

If the reasoning has any percentage of probability, then the administration has become a danger to our democracy.

Nigerians everywhere must carefully watch these events, drop their robe of partisanship and rise to protect our democracy, should it become necessary. If the election ends up not being free and fair, violence may erupt and the outcome will be a lose-lose scenario for all. Buhari’s pedigree as one of the military generals who foiled democracy in the past must always be remembered.

Nigerians must not allow the relapse of June 12 under any circumstance. A peaceful transition of power leads to an enduring democracy.